How Often Do The First Round Leaders Win a Golf Major?

Golf tournaments are usually split over a four days, though the exact length can vary according to the specific event in question. At the end of the first day there will usually be a lot of interest around the golfer that is leading the pack, but does it necessarily follow that they’ll still be at the front on the last day of the tournament?

Just as the horse that runs to the front of the pack in a horse race doesn’t necessarily cross the finish line first, or the team that is top of the Premier League after eight games doesn’t always win the title, so too does the leader in a golf tournament at the end of day one not have victory all sewn up.

Here will look at the stats on exactly that, focussing on the four biggest golf tournaments, the Majors.

Winning 1st Round Leaders in 20 Years of Majors

The main place to look when it comes to stats on this particular topic is the Majors. Golf’s four Majors are as follows:

• The Masters, currently played in April
• PGA Championship, currently played in May
• US Open, currently played in June
• Open Championship, currently played in July

They are far and away the most popular golf tournaments, but they are also all based over four days of play and therefore will definitely have a leader at the end of day 1 that might not necessarily still be in the lead when the tournaments reach their climax. We’re also looking at the results over 20 years (between 200 and 2019) to give us a solid idea of how often it happens.

Here’s a look at the years when the first round leaders won those Majors from 20 years worth of tournaments:

Golf Majors: Winning First Round Leaders – 2000 to 2019

Out of 80 first rounds across 20 years’ worth of Majors, 14 of the round 1 leaders or joint-leaders went on to win the tournament, that’s 17.5% of the time.

Which Major Do The Round 1 Leaders Win Most Often?

Knowing when the leader or joint-leader on day one has gone on to win the Major is one thing, but knowing the breakdown of how often they do so in each tournament is a different proposition. After all, if you’re planning to use the information for betting purposes then you’ll want to know what bets to go for and which to avoid.

The breakdown per tournament is as follows:

The US Open is the tournament with the most round 1 leaders that have gone on to win the tournament, whilst The Masters is the competition that has seen the fewest first round leaders go on to be given the green jacket. It’s a close run thing, though, and the first day leaders or joint-leaders of the Open Championship can’t be cocky.

It’s interesting to note that the two tournaments that one would probably argue are the toughest in their own way, are also the ones that the leaders have struggled to hold onto their lead in. The Masters is mentally tough, with Augusta regularly presenting the golfers with a difficult challenge to put on top of the pressure that they’ll no doubt be feeling.

The British Open Championship, meanwhile, is often difficult because of the weather that can change from morning to afternoon, let alone day to day, It’s certainly noteworthy that Irish golfer Rory McIlroy is one of those to have led on day 1 and won the competition, with the others being the experienced Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth, who was tied for the lead at the end of day 1.

Famous 1st Round Leaders Who Triumphed or Collapsed

Across the 80 Majors that were played over the 20 years we’re looking at, there have been some interesting moments that are worth flagging up. For starters, Tiger Woods led at the end of day 1 four times in the four Majors across the 20 years, only failing to go on to win the tournament in question in the 2009 PGA Championship.

Another noteworthy thing about that year was that the eventual winner was South Korean, Yang Yong-eun. He came from behind to beat Woods, with his PGA Championship victory being one of just two that he has won on the PGA Tour and his only Major to date. He tied for third in the US Open two years later, which is the closest he’s come to a further victory.

It’s also worth flagging up that the co-leader at the end of day 1 in the Open Championship of 2011 was Tom Lewis. Lewis, from Welwyn Garden City in England, was just 20 at the time and an amateur golfer, not turning professional until later that year. Ultimately he finished tied for 30th, but will have been able to dream about the impossible for at least one night.

A notable name on the list is that of Fred Couples, who was the leader at the end of the first day of The Masters in 2010, when he was 51-years-old. It was a tournament that he’d won 18 years previously, with the flash-in-the-pan lead that year being an exciting moment for all golfers of a certain age. Sadly he couldn’t hold on for the win, missing out to Phil Mickelson.

Meanwhile, 2015 was a year that Dustin Johnson will have wanted to forget. The American was the leader on round one in the PGA Championship, The Masters and the Open Championship, failing to win any of them. He did eventually win The Masters in 2020 and the US Open in 2016, but the closest he’s come to winning the Open Championship is 2011, when he tied for second.

In terms of co-leaders at the end of round one, it has been the case 26 times, yet only on four of those did one of the co-leaders go on to win the tournament in question. That’s just 15.38% of cases that someone was good enough to tie for the lead and go on to be victorious. Perhaps the fact that more than one golfer was in the lead in the first place at the end of the first day of golf suggests that the course was relatively easy, maybe becoming tougher on the days that followed.

Full List of 1st Round Leaders & Their Finishing Positions

We know know how often the first round leader has won that Major Championship, but how did all of the first round leader finish? Below we have the eventual position of all the first round leaders between 2000 and 2019 in each of the four majors.

The Masters | PGA Championship | US Open | Open Championship

Masters 1st Round Leaders – 2000 to 2019

PGA Championship 1st Round Leaders – 2000 to 2019

US Open 1st Round Leaders – 2000 to 2019

Open Championship 1st Round Leaders – 2000 to 2019